Is 99% a reasonable probability?

Princeton Election Consortium 2016: Trump 306 , Clinton 232 EV Popular vote margin: Clinton +2.1% Final Meta-margin: Trump +0.7% Senate: 48 D/I, 52R RSS <img src="http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/themes/Cutline-1.4-3ColumnSplit/images/header_2.jpg" width="970" height="140" alt="Princeton Election Consortium header image 2" title="Princeton Election Consortium header image 2" /> front page archives <a href="/2016/06/26/an-online-app-to-diagnose-partisan-gerrymandering/"><img src="/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/gerrymander_website_banner_thumbnail_200px.jpg" width="200" height="88" alt="A web app for implementing Sam Wang's statistical standards for gerrymandering" /></a> PEC posts on gerrymandering and redistricting Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016) Obama net: APPROVE 8.0% About Us FAQ Primaries: Early signs of a Trump ...

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